FC Arouca scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Arouca 49.9% · Draw 27.1% · Moreirense FC 23.1% Why FC Arouca is favoured FC Arouca's Elo (1538) is +52 over Moreirense FC (1487); low confidence. Recent: FC Arouca 1W-0D-0L · Moreirense FC 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: FC Arouca +1.0, Moreirense FC +0.0. Form depth FC Arouca: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Moreirense FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Arouca 0W, 2D, Moreirense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 0-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 57.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context FC Arouca has 1 more day of rest (FC Arouca 7d, Moreirense FC 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.