CS Marítimo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
CS Marítimo makes its anticipated return to Liga Portugal after securing promotion, bringing a formidable home record into the new campaign. The team has bolstered its squad with new signings like Maxime Dominguez and Samuel Bamba, adding fresh quality to an already solid foundation.
Lineup: Expected starting XI: Samuel Silva – Afonso Freitas, Erivaldo Almeida, Rodrigo Borges, Igor Julio – Danilovic – Rafael Guzzo, Martin Tejon, Chico Gomes, Mohamed Diouri – Alexandre Guedes.
Casa Pia AC finished 16th in the previous Primeira Liga season, necessitating a playoff to retain their top-flight status. The team has brought in new recruits such as Alassana Jatta and Henrique Araújo, hoping to integrate them effectively for the new campaign.
Lineup: Expected starting XI: Sequeira, Domingos Bandeira, Joao Goulart, David Souza – Andre Geraldes, Lawrence Ofori, Seba Perez, Kevin Prieto – Jeremy Livolant, Daylon Livramento, Gaiska Larrzabal.
“Marítimo returns to Primeira Liga with strong home advantage against Casa Pia, who face challenges with away form despite recent signings.”
Model probabilities CS Marítimo 43.4% · Draw 31.5% · Casa Pia AC 25.0% Calibration Raw model: 49.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. News context Marítimo returns to Primeira Liga with strong home advantage against Casa Pia, who face challenges with away form despite recent signings. CS Marítimo: CS Marítimo makes its anticipated return to Liga Portugal after securing promotion, bringing a formidable home record into the new campaign. The team has bolstered its squad with new signings like Maxime Dominguez and Samuel Bamba, adding fresh quality to an already solid foundation. Casa Pia AC: Casa Pia AC finished 16th in the previous Primeira Liga season, necessitating a playoff to retain their top-flight status. The team has brought in new recruits such as Alassana Jatta and Henrique Araújo, hoping to integrate them effectively for the new campaign.