Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elche CF
To win
+$27.20
Total payout
$47.20
Joint prob
46.2%
Combined odds
2.36
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+9.1%
Expected value: +$1.82 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.82 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Elche CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.2% · fair market: 41.0% · edge: +12.7%
Model probabilities Elche CF 46.2% · Draw 24.3% · Valencia CF 29.5% Why Elche CF is favoured Valencia CF's Elo (1474) is +19 over Elche CF (1455); high confidence. Recent: Elche CF 2W-4D-4L · Valencia CF 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Elche CF -0.3, Valencia CF -1.0. Form depth Elche CF: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Valencia CF: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Elche CF 1.5, Valencia CF 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Elche CF 0W, 2D, Valencia CF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 47.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 46.2% vs market 41.0% (edge +12.7%, suggested Kelly +6.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.