RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Celta de Vigo 25.7% · Draw 21.2% · Real Betis Balompié 53.1% Why Real Betis Balompié is favoured Real Betis Balompié's Elo (1640) is +130 over RC Celta de Vigo (1511); high confidence. Recent: RC Celta de Vigo 2W-5D-2L · Real Betis Balompié 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RC Celta de Vigo +0.3, Real Betis Balompié +0.3. Form depth RC Celta de Vigo: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Real Betis Balompié: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (RC Celta de Vigo 1.5, Real Betis Balompié 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RC Celta de Vigo 0W, 4D, Real Betis Balompié 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-1, 3-2. Calibration Raw model: 30.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 25.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.