Club Atlético de Madrid scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Atlético de Madrid 69.9% · Draw 17.4% · RC Deportivo La Coruña 12.7% Why Club Atlético de Madrid is favoured Club Atlético de Madrid's Elo (1699) is +186 over RC Deportivo La Coruña (1513); medium confidence. Recent: Club Atlético de Madrid 7W-1D-2L · RC Deportivo La Coruña 2W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Club Atlético de Madrid +1.0, RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.1. Form depth Club Atlético de Madrid: avg 1.9 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 4/7 on the road). RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Club Atlético de Madrid 1.6, RC Deportivo La Coruña 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Club Atlético de Madrid 0W, 3D, RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 67.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 69.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.