Real Racing Club de Santander scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Real Racing Club de Santander 53.2% · Draw 23.9% · Valencia CF 22.9% Why Real Racing Club de Santander is favoured Real Racing Club de Santander's Elo (1493) is +19 over Valencia CF (1474); low confidence. Recent: Real Racing Club de Santander 2W-1D-4L · Valencia CF 1W-1D-5L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Real Racing Club de Santander -1.4, Valencia CF -1.3. Form depth Real Racing Club de Santander: avg 1.6 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/4 on the road). Valencia CF: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Real Racing Club de Santander on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Real Racing Club de Santander 1.7, Valencia CF 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Real Racing Club de Santander 0W, 4D, Valencia CF 0W (draws are common). Context Real Racing Club de Santander has 6 more days of rest (Real Racing Club de Santander 55d, Valencia CF 49d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.