Levante UD scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Levante UD 39.5% · Draw 24.5% · Sevilla FC 36.0% Why Levante UD is favoured Sevilla FC's Elo (1476) is +23 over Levante UD (1453); high confidence. Recent: Levante UD 1W-2D-3L · Sevilla FC 4W-1D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Levante UD -0.7, Sevilla FC +0.1. Form depth Levante UD: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/4 on the road). Sevilla FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/3 on the road). Levante UD on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Levante UD 1.3, Sevilla FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Sevilla FC has a stronger recent record (57% vs 17%) — model favours Levante UD on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Levante UD 0W, 1D, Sevilla FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 0-3, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 41.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sevilla FC has 1 more day of rest (Levante UD 56d, Sevilla FC 57d).