CA Osasuna scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Osasuna 40.8% · Draw 28.6% · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 30.7% Why CA Osasuna is favoured Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's Elo (1487) is +40 over CA Osasuna (1447); high confidence. Recent: CA Osasuna 2W-1D-3L · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2W-1D-3L (last 6). Goal differential per game: CA Osasuna -1.2, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid -0.8. Form depth CA Osasuna: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). CA Osasuna on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (CA Osasuna 1.7, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CA Osasuna 0W, 1D, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-3, 2-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 42.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Rayo Vallecano de Madrid has 9 more days of rest (CA Osasuna 25d, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 34d).