RC Deportivo La Coruña scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Deportivo La Coruña 48.0% · Draw 27.1% · Sevilla FC 24.9% Why RC Deportivo La Coruña is favoured RC Deportivo La Coruña's Elo (1523) is +54 over Sevilla FC (1469); low confidence. Recent: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2W-3D-0L · Sevilla FC 3W-1D-1L (last 5). Goal differential per game: RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.6, Sevilla FC +0.4. Form depth RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Sevilla FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (RC Deportivo La Coruña 1.5, Sevilla FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Sevilla FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 40%) — model favours RC Deportivo La Coruña on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W, 3D, Sevilla FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 54.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sevilla FC has 2 more days of rest (RC Deportivo La Coruña 29d, Sevilla FC 31d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.