Levante UD scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Levante UD 20.4% · Draw 14.8% · FC Barcelona 64.9% Why FC Barcelona is favoured FC Barcelona's Elo (1804) is +340 over Levante UD (1464); high confidence. Recent: Levante UD 1W-2D-1L · FC Barcelona 5W-0D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Levante UD +0.0, FC Barcelona +3.8. Form depth Levante UD: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/3 on the road). FC Barcelona: avg 4.4 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). FC Barcelona on a 5-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (Levante UD 0.9, FC Barcelona 2.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Levante UD 0W, 1D, FC Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 2-3, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 9.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Levante UD has 7 more days of rest (Levante UD 27d, FC Barcelona 20d).