Getafe CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Getafe CF 40.7% · Draw 26.3% · RC Celta de Vigo 32.9% Why Getafe CF is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1513) is +85 over Getafe CF (1428); high confidence. Recent: Getafe CF 1W-0D-2L · RC Celta de Vigo 0W-2D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Getafe CF -1.0, RC Celta de Vigo -0.8. Form depth Getafe CF: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). RC Celta de Vigo: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.5 total goals (Getafe CF 0.7, RC Celta de Vigo 0.8) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Getafe CF 0W, 3D, RC Celta de Vigo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-2, 1-2. Context Getafe CF has 7 more days of rest (Getafe CF 22d, RC Celta de Vigo 15d).