Getafe CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Getafe CF 36.3% · Draw 27.3% · Real Racing Club de Santander 36.5% Why Real Racing Club de Santander is favoured Real Racing Club de Santander's Elo (1503) is +78 over Getafe CF (1425); low confidence. Recent: Getafe CF 0W-0D-1L · Real Racing Club de Santander 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Getafe CF -3.0, Real Racing Club de Santander +0.0. Form depth Getafe CF: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Real Racing Club de Santander: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Getafe CF 0W, 4D, Real Racing Club de Santander 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 33.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Getafe CF has 1 more day of rest (Getafe CF 7d, Real Racing Club de Santander 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.