Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Real Racing Club de Santander
To win
+$52.60
Total payout
$72.60
Joint prob
37.6%
Combined odds
3.63
Fair odds
2.66
Edge
+36.4%
Expected value: +$7.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.18 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 10% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$20.72 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$21.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Real Racing Club de Santander scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.6% · fair market: 26.7% · edge: +40.5%
Model probabilities Real Racing Club de Santander 37.6% · Draw 25.8% · Villarreal CF 36.7% Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Real Racing Club de Santander 0W, 3D, Villarreal CF 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 35.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 37.6% vs market 26.7% (edge +40.5%, suggested Kelly +13.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.