Club Cerro Porteño scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Cerro Porteño 58.2% · Draw 20.0% · SE Palmeiras 21.8% Why Club Cerro Porteño is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1557) is +33 over Club Cerro Porteño (1524); low confidence. Recent: Club Cerro Porteño 4W-2D-1L · SE Palmeiras 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Club Cerro Porteño +0.6, SE Palmeiras +1.0. Form depth Club Cerro Porteño: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 2/4 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 1.9 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Club Cerro Porteño 0.9, SE Palmeiras 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Club Cerro Porteño 0W, 2D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 52.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 58.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.