SC Heerenveen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Heerenveen 37.2% · Draw 28.0% · AZ 34.7% Why SC Heerenveen is favoured AZ's Elo (1566) is +59 over SC Heerenveen (1506); low confidence. Recent: SC Heerenveen 1W-2D-1L · AZ 4W-0D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: SC Heerenveen -0.3, AZ +2.5. Form depth SC Heerenveen: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). AZ: avg 3.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). AZ on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (SC Heerenveen 1.0, AZ 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SC Heerenveen 0W, 2D, AZ 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 3-1, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 35.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AZ has 1 more day of rest (SC Heerenveen 27d, AZ 28d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.