CA Rosario Central scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Rosario Central 59.5% · Draw 20.6% · SC Corinthians Paulista 19.9% Why CA Rosario Central is favoured SC Corinthians Paulista's Elo (1534) is +15 over CA Rosario Central (1519); low confidence. Recent: CA Rosario Central 4W-1D-1L · SC Corinthians Paulista 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Rosario Central +1.2, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.5. Form depth CA Rosario Central: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 2/3 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (CA Rosario Central 1.3, SC Corinthians Paulista 0.9) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 53.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 59.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.