SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 46.5% · Draw 19.1% · Club Cerro Porteño 34.4% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1569) is +45 over Club Cerro Porteño (1524); low confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 5W-3D-2L · Club Cerro Porteño 4W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +1.1, Club Cerro Porteño +0.7. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Club Cerro Porteño: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 2/3 on the road). Club Cerro Porteño on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.1, Club Cerro Porteño 0.8) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Club Cerro Porteño has a stronger recent record (67% vs 50%) — model favours SE Palmeiras on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 1D, Club Cerro Porteño 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 43.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 46.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.