Coventry City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coventry City FC 45.8% · Draw 24.9% · Sunderland AFC 29.3% Why Coventry City FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1516 vs 1512) — winner depends on context. Recent: Coventry City FC 2W-0D-6L · Sunderland AFC 1W-2D-5L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Coventry City FC -1.1, Sunderland AFC -1.0. Form depth Coventry City FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Sunderland AFC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Coventry City FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Coventry City FC 1.3, Sunderland AFC 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Coventry City FC 0W, 5D, Sunderland AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 47.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.