AFC Bournemouth scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AFC Bournemouth 53.9% · Draw 22.2% · Leeds United FC 23.8% Why AFC Bournemouth is favoured AFC Bournemouth's Elo (1578) is +64 over Leeds United FC (1514); high confidence. Recent: AFC Bournemouth 2W-3D-3L · Leeds United FC 2W-5D-1L (last 8). Goal differential per game: AFC Bournemouth -0.1, Leeds United FC +0.4. Form depth AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Leeds United FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). AFC Bournemouth on a 2-match winning streak. Leeds United FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (AFC Bournemouth 1.1, Leeds United FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — AFC Bournemouth 0W, 2D, Leeds United FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 2-2, 4-1.