Tottenham Hotspur FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Tottenham Hotspur FC 47.3% · Draw 24.8% · Coventry City FC 27.9% Why Tottenham Hotspur FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1519 vs 1516) — winner depends on context. Recent: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0W-3D-3L · Coventry City FC 2W-0D-4L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Tottenham Hotspur FC -1.0, Coventry City FC -1.0. Form depth Tottenham Hotspur FC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Coventry City FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Coventry City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Tottenham Hotspur FC 1.2, Coventry City FC 1.2) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Coventry City FC has a stronger recent record (33% vs 0%) — model favours Tottenham Hotspur FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Tottenham Hotspur FC 0W, 2D, Coventry City FC 0W (draws are common). Context Coventry City FC has 1 more day of rest (Tottenham Hotspur FC 57d, Coventry City FC 58d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.