AFC Bournemouth scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AFC Bournemouth 56.8% · Draw 22.0% · Sunderland AFC 21.2% Why AFC Bournemouth is favoured AFC Bournemouth's Elo (1578) is +66 over Sunderland AFC (1512); high confidence. Recent: AFC Bournemouth 0W-3D-3L · Sunderland AFC 1W-1D-4L (last 6). Goal differential per game: AFC Bournemouth -1.0, Sunderland AFC -1.0. Form depth AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Sunderland AFC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). AFC Bournemouth on a 2-match losing streak. Sunderland AFC on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (AFC Bournemouth 1.6, Sunderland AFC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Sunderland AFC has a stronger recent record (17% vs 0%) — model favours AFC Bournemouth on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — AFC Bournemouth 0W, 3D, Sunderland AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 3-2. Context Sunderland AFC has 1 more day of rest (AFC Bournemouth 55d, Sunderland AFC 56d).