Manchester United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Manchester United FC 65.5% · Draw 19.8% · Tottenham Hotspur FC 14.7% Why Manchester United FC is favoured Manchester United FC's Elo (1633) is +118 over Tottenham Hotspur FC (1516); high confidence. Recent: Manchester United FC 2W-2D-2L · Tottenham Hotspur FC 0W-2D-3L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Manchester United FC +0.7, Tottenham Hotspur FC -1.2. Form depth Manchester United FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Tottenham Hotspur FC: avg 0.4 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Manchester United FC 1.8, Tottenham Hotspur FC 0.9) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Manchester United FC 0W, 3D, Tottenham Hotspur FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 63.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 65.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Manchester United FC has 1 more day of rest (Manchester United FC 49d, Tottenham Hotspur FC 48d).