Sunderland AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sunderland AFC 29.6% · Draw 22.3% · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 48.1% Why Brighton & Hove Albion FC is favoured Brighton & Hove Albion FC's Elo (1608) is +96 over Sunderland AFC (1512); high confidence. Recent: Sunderland AFC 1W-1D-3L · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3W-1D-1L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Sunderland AFC -0.8, Brighton & Hove Albion FC +2.2. Form depth Sunderland AFC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Brighton & Hove Albion FC: avg 3.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Sunderland AFC on a 2-match losing streak. Brighton & Hove Albion FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (Sunderland AFC 1.1, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sunderland AFC 0W, 2D, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 0-1, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 33.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 29.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sunderland AFC has 1 more day of rest (Sunderland AFC 48d, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 47d).