AFC Bournemouth
vs Everton FC_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–2MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  19.5%

  Fair odds

  5.13

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  18.9%

  Fair odds

  5.30

• 0–4+Save pick

  Prob

  13.7%

  Fair odds

  7.32

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  13.5%

  Fair odds

  7.43

• 0–5+Save pick

  Prob

  7.9%

  Fair odds

  12.61

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  4.6%

  Fair odds

  21.56

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  3.9%

  Fair odds

  25.64

• 0–6+Save pick

  Prob

  3.8%

  Fair odds

  26.10

AFC Bournemouth scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  +38%

  Joint prob

  0.3%

  Naïve (book)

  0.2%

  Fair odds

  315.87

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -60%

  Joint prob

  0.3%

  Naïve (book)

  0.8%

  Fair odds

  309.51

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -12%

  Joint prob

  13.7%

  Naïve (book)

  15.6%

  Fair odds

  7.31

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +6%

  Joint prob

  58.0%

  Naïve (book)

  54.4%

  Fair odds

  1.73

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.