Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coventry City FC
To win
+$268.40
Total payout
$288.40
Joint prob
17.4%
Combined odds
14.42
Fair odds
5.74
Edge
+151.1%
Expected value: +$30.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$30.21 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 5% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-12.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Manchester City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 17.4% · fair market: 6.7% · edge: +161.1%
Model probabilities Manchester City FC 64.5% · Draw 18.1% · Coventry City FC 17.4% Why Manchester City FC is favoured Manchester City FC's Elo (1712) is +218 over Coventry City FC (1494); low confidence. Recent: Manchester City FC 2W-0D-0L · Coventry City FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Manchester City FC +2.0, Coventry City FC -2.0. Form depth Manchester City FC: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Coventry City FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Manchester City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Coventry City FC on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Manchester City FC 0W, 4D, Coventry City FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 72.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 17.4% vs market 6.9% (edge +153.9%, suggested Kelly +11.0% of bankroll). draw: model 18.1% vs market 11.3% (edge +59.8%, suggested Kelly +7.1% of bankroll). Context Coventry City FC has 2 more days of rest (Manchester City FC 11d, Coventry City FC 13d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.