Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Draw
To win
+$54.80
Total payout
$74.80
Joint prob
28.2%
Combined odds
3.74
Fair odds
3.55
Edge
+5.4%
Expected value: +$1.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.07 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 11% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$2.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Newcastle United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.2% · fair market: 25.9% · edge: +8.9%
Model probabilities Newcastle United FC 43.6% · Draw 28.2% · AFC Bournemouth 28.2% Why Newcastle United FC is favoured AFC Bournemouth's Elo (1587) is +41 over Newcastle United FC (1546); high confidence. Recent: Newcastle United FC 1W-1D-0L · AFC Bournemouth 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Newcastle United FC +1.0, AFC Bournemouth -0.5. Form depth Newcastle United FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Newcastle United FC 0W, 5D, AFC Bournemouth 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-0, 1-4. Calibration Raw model: 47.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market draw: model 28.2% vs market 25.9% (edge +8.8%, suggested Kelly +2.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.