Leeds United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Leeds United FC 39.4% · Draw 27.1% · Brentford FC 33.5% Why Leeds United FC is favoured Brentford FC's Elo (1566) is +73 over Leeds United FC (1493); high confidence. Recent: Leeds United FC 1W-0D-0L · Brentford FC 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Leeds United FC +1.0, Brentford FC +3.0. Form depth Leeds United FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Brentford FC: avg 3.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Leeds United FC 0W, 6D, Brentford FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-1, 0-0.