Chelsea FC
vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–4MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  12.5%

  Fair odds

  7.98

• 0–5+Save pick

  Prob

  11.3%

  Fair odds

  8.86

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  11.1%

  Fair odds

  8.98

• 0–6+Save pick

  Prob

  8.5%

  Fair odds

  11.82

• 1–4+Save pick

  Prob

  7.5%

  Fair odds

  13.30

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  7.4%

  Fair odds

  13.46

• 1–5+Save pick

  Prob

  6.8%

  Fair odds

  14.77

• 1–3+Save pick

  Prob

  6.7%

  Fair odds

  14.96

Chelsea FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  +46%

  Joint prob

  1.1%

  Naïve (book)

  0.8%

  Fair odds

  88.98

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -24%

  Joint prob

  1.2%

  Naïve (book)

  1.5%

  Fair odds

  86.60

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -5%

  Joint prob

  39.6%

  Naïve (book)

  41.8%

  Fair odds

  2.53

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +0%

  Joint prob

  83.0%

  Naïve (book)

  82.8%

  Fair odds

  1.20

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.