Newcastle United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Newcastle United FC 38.2% · Draw 26.2% · Liverpool FC 35.6% Why Newcastle United FC is favoured Liverpool FC's Elo (1637) is +94 over Newcastle United FC (1543); high confidence. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Newcastle United FC 0W, 1D, Liverpool FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-1, 2-3, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 36.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 38.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.