Nottingham Forest FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Nottingham Forest FC 45.8% · Draw 28.6% · Leeds United FC 25.6% Why Nottingham Forest FC is favoured Nottingham Forest FC's Elo (1510) is +28 over Leeds United FC (1482); high confidence. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Nottingham Forest FC 0W, 3D, Leeds United FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 3-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.