Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 41.9% · Draw 29.5% · SC Heerenveen 28.6% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1506) is +16 over Sparta Rotterdam (1490); low confidence. Recent: Sparta Rotterdam 1W-2D-3L · SC Heerenveen 1W-3D-2L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Sparta Rotterdam -0.5, SC Heerenveen -0.3. Form depth Sparta Rotterdam: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). SC Heerenveen: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.6, SC Heerenveen 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Sparta Rotterdam 0W, 3D, SC Heerenveen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-3, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 45.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sparta Rotterdam has 1 more day of rest (Sparta Rotterdam 41d, SC Heerenveen 40d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.