FC Groningen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Groningen 47.3% · Draw 28.3% · PEC Zwolle 24.4% Why FC Groningen is favoured FC Groningen's Elo (1489) is +30 over PEC Zwolle (1459); low confidence. Recent: FC Groningen 2W-2D-2L · PEC Zwolle 1W-1D-4L (last 6). Goal differential per game: FC Groningen -0.2, PEC Zwolle -1.8. Form depth FC Groningen: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). FC Groningen on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (FC Groningen 2.4, PEC Zwolle 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — FC Groningen 0W, 5D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-2, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 54.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.