Fortuna Sittard scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fortuna Sittard 43.1% · Draw 24.3% · FC Twente '65 32.6% Why Fortuna Sittard is favoured FC Twente '65's Elo (1543) is +24 over Fortuna Sittard (1519); low confidence. Recent: Fortuna Sittard 4W-1D-2L · FC Twente '65 5W-1D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Fortuna Sittard -0.1, FC Twente '65 +1.1. Form depth Fortuna Sittard: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 3/4 on the road). FC Twente '65: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). FC Twente '65 on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.4, FC Twente '65 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Fortuna Sittard 0W, 1D, FC Twente '65 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 3-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.