SC Heerenveen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Heerenveen 38.3% · Draw 23.8% · SBV Excelsior 37.8% Why SC Heerenveen is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1539) is +44 over SC Heerenveen (1495); low confidence. Recent: SC Heerenveen 2W-3D-3L · SBV Excelsior 3W-2D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: SC Heerenveen +0.0, SBV Excelsior +0.3. Form depth SC Heerenveen: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). SBV Excelsior: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (SC Heerenveen 1.6, SBV Excelsior 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SC Heerenveen 0W, 2D, SBV Excelsior 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 2-1, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 40.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.