Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 59.8% · Draw 21.6% · Willem II Tilburg 18.6% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured Sparta Rotterdam's Elo (1490) is +75 over Willem II Tilburg (1416); low confidence. Recent: Sparta Rotterdam 1W-3D-4L · Willem II Tilburg 0W-2D-6L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Sparta Rotterdam -0.9, Willem II Tilburg -2.0. Form depth Sparta Rotterdam: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Willem II Tilburg: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Willem II Tilburg on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.9 total goals (Sparta Rotterdam 2.3, Willem II Tilburg 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.