FC Utrecht scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Utrecht 51.9% · Draw 23.5% · PEC Zwolle 24.6% Why FC Utrecht is favoured FC Utrecht's Elo (1472) is +32 over PEC Zwolle (1441); low confidence. Recent: FC Utrecht 3W-2D-4L · PEC Zwolle 2W-1D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: FC Utrecht -1.1, PEC Zwolle -1.3. Form depth FC Utrecht: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). FC Utrecht on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (FC Utrecht 2.1, PEC Zwolle 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — FC Utrecht 0W, 5D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 3-3. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.