SBV Excelsior scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SBV Excelsior 43.3% · Draw 24.1% · FC Twente '65 32.7% Why SBV Excelsior is favoured FC Twente '65's Elo (1543) is +30 over SBV Excelsior (1513); low confidence. Recent: SBV Excelsior 3W-2D-5L · FC Twente '65 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SBV Excelsior -0.3, FC Twente '65 +0.9. Form depth SBV Excelsior: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). FC Twente '65: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SBV Excelsior on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (SBV Excelsior 1.3, FC Twente '65 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments FC Twente '65 has a stronger recent record (60% vs 30%) — model favours SBV Excelsior on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — SBV Excelsior 0W, 4D, FC Twente '65 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 0-3. Calibration Raw model: 44.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.