SSC Napoli scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SSC Napoli 44.9% · Draw 29.9% · Como 1907 25.2% Why SSC Napoli is favoured Elo essentially level (1639 vs 1641) — winner depends on context. Recent: SSC Napoli 1W-0D-0L · Como 1907 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: SSC Napoli +2.0, Como 1907 +0.0. Form depth SSC Napoli: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Como 1907: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — SSC Napoli 0W, 4D, Como 1907 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.