US Sassuolo Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Sassuolo Calcio 40.7% · Draw 30.5% · Juventus FC 28.8% Why US Sassuolo Calcio is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: US Sassuolo Calcio 1W-1D-1L · Juventus FC 2W-1D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: US Sassuolo Calcio +0.0, Juventus FC +1.0. Form depth US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Juventus FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (US Sassuolo Calcio 1.0, Juventus FC 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — US Sassuolo Calcio 0W, 1D, Juventus FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-3, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 44.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Juventus FC has 1 more day of rest (US Sassuolo Calcio 20d, Juventus FC 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.