Atalanta BC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Atalanta BC 54.4% · Draw 23.6% · Cagliari Calcio 22.0% Why Atalanta BC is favoured Atalanta BC's Elo (1598) is +115 over Cagliari Calcio (1483); high confidence. Recent: Atalanta BC 2W-0D-1L · Cagliari Calcio 2W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Atalanta BC +0.3, Cagliari Calcio +0.3. Form depth Atalanta BC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Cagliari Calcio: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.7 total goals (Atalanta BC 0.8, Cagliari Calcio 0.8) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Atalanta BC 0W, 1D, Cagliari Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 2-1, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 62.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Cagliari Calcio has 1 more day of rest (Atalanta BC 19d, Cagliari Calcio 20d).