Venezia FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Venezia FC 38.7% · Draw 26.4% · ACF Fiorentina 34.9% Why Venezia FC is favoured ACF Fiorentina's Elo (1460) is +89 over Venezia FC (1371); high confidence. Recent: Venezia FC 0W-0D-3L · ACF Fiorentina 0W-0D-3L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Venezia FC -1.7, ACF Fiorentina -2.7. Form depth Venezia FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). ACF Fiorentina: avg 0.3 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Venezia FC on a 3-match losing streak. ACF Fiorentina on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Venezia FC 1.8, ACF Fiorentina 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Venezia FC 0W, 1D, ACF Fiorentina 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-0, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 37.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 38.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Venezia FC has 1 more day of rest (Venezia FC 18d, ACF Fiorentina 17d).