Torino FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Torino FC 26.5% · Draw 20.8% · AS Roma 52.8% Why AS Roma is favoured AS Roma's Elo (1671) is +222 over Torino FC (1450); high confidence. Recent: Torino FC 1W-0D-2L · AS Roma 3W-1D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Torino FC -0.3, AS Roma +2.3. Form depth Torino FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). AS Roma: avg 2.8 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Torino FC 0.9, AS Roma 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Torino FC 0W, 2D, AS Roma 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 0-1, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 17.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Torino FC has 1 more day of rest (Torino FC 21d, AS Roma 20d).