SSC Napoli scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SSC Napoli 53.5% · Draw 24.5% · Bologna FC 1909 22.0% Why SSC Napoli is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1624) is +99 over Bologna FC 1909 (1525); high confidence. Recent: SSC Napoli 1W-0D-3L · Bologna FC 1909 0W-1D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: SSC Napoli -0.3, Bologna FC 1909 -0.7. Form depth SSC Napoli: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Bologna FC 1909: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). SSC Napoli on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (SSC Napoli 1.3, Bologna FC 1909 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SSC Napoli 0W, 3D, Bologna FC 1909 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 2-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 61.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SSC Napoli has 2 more days of rest (SSC Napoli 21d, Bologna FC 1909 19d).