Genoa CFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Genoa CFC 40.3% · Draw 23.8% · ACF Fiorentina 36.0% Why Genoa CFC is favoured ACF Fiorentina's Elo (1460) is +43 over Genoa CFC (1417); high confidence. Recent: Genoa CFC 0W-1D-4L · ACF Fiorentina 1W-1D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Genoa CFC -1.4, ACF Fiorentina -1.2. Form depth Genoa CFC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). ACF Fiorentina: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Genoa CFC 1.5, ACF Fiorentina 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments ACF Fiorentina has a stronger recent record (20% vs 0%) — model favours Genoa CFC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Genoa CFC 0W, 5D, ACF Fiorentina 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-2, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 42.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Genoa CFC has 2 more days of rest (Genoa CFC 48d, ACF Fiorentina 46d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.