US Lecce scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Lecce 29.0% · Draw 20.5% · Bologna FC 1909 50.5% Why Bologna FC 1909 is favoured Bologna FC 1909's Elo (1518) is +146 over US Lecce (1372); high confidence. Recent: US Lecce 2W-0D-3L · Bologna FC 1909 0W-2D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: US Lecce -1.0, Bologna FC 1909 -0.6. Form depth US Lecce: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Bologna FC 1909: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (US Lecce 1.1, Bologna FC 1909 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments US Lecce has a stronger recent record (40% vs 0%) — model favours Bologna FC 1909 on Elo despite US Lecce's form. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — US Lecce 0W, 3D, Bologna FC 1909 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-2, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 32.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 29.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context US Lecce has 1 more day of rest (US Lecce 48d, Bologna FC 1909 47d).