Atalanta BC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Atalanta BC 75.2% · Draw 16.1% · Venezia FC 8.7% Why Atalanta BC is favoured Atalanta BC's Elo (1585) is +221 over Venezia FC (1363); high confidence. Recent: Atalanta BC 2W-0D-3L · Venezia FC 0W-0D-5L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Atalanta BC -0.4, Venezia FC -1.8. Form depth Atalanta BC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Venezia FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.6 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Atalanta BC on a 3-match losing streak. Venezia FC on a 5-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Atalanta BC 1.8, Venezia FC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Atalanta BC 0W, 2D, Venezia FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-2, 1-3. Calibration Raw model: 72.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 75.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.