Venezia FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Venezia FC 8.7% · Draw 16.2% · SSC Napoli 75.1% Why SSC Napoli is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1627) is +270 over Venezia FC (1357); high confidence. Recent: Venezia FC 0W-0D-6L · SSC Napoli 3W-1D-4L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Venezia FC -1.8, SSC Napoli +0.1. Form depth Venezia FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.7 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). SSC Napoli: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Venezia FC on a 6-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Venezia FC 1.0, SSC Napoli 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Venezia FC 0W, 4D, SSC Napoli 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 13.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 8.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SSC Napoli has 1 more day of rest (Venezia FC 54d, SSC Napoli 55d).