Udinese Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Udinese Calcio 57.8% · Draw 21.8% · US Lecce 20.4% Why Udinese Calcio is favoured Udinese Calcio's Elo (1442) is +70 over US Lecce (1372); high confidence. Recent: Udinese Calcio 1W-1D-4L · US Lecce 2W-0D-4L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Udinese Calcio -0.7, US Lecce -1.0. Form depth Udinese Calcio: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). US Lecce: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Udinese Calcio on a 4-match losing streak. US Lecce on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Udinese Calcio 1.8, US Lecce 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments US Lecce has a stronger recent record (33% vs 17%) — model favours Udinese Calcio on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Udinese Calcio 0W, 2D, US Lecce 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-2, 0-1. Context Udinese Calcio has 1 more day of rest (Udinese Calcio 56d, US Lecce 55d).