Frosinone Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Frosinone Calcio 52.6% · Draw 23.5% · US Sassuolo Calcio 23.9% Why Frosinone Calcio is favoured Frosinone Calcio's Elo (1509) is +30 over US Sassuolo Calcio (1479); low confidence. Recent: Frosinone Calcio 3W-1D-2L · US Sassuolo Calcio 2W-2D-2L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Frosinone Calcio +0.3, US Sassuolo Calcio +0.0. Form depth Frosinone Calcio: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Frosinone Calcio 1.6, US Sassuolo Calcio 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Frosinone Calcio 0W, 2D, US Sassuolo Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-0, 4-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.