Juventus FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Juventus FC 58.6% · Draw 21.3% · SS Lazio 20.1% Why Juventus FC is favoured Juventus FC's Elo (1657) is +83 over SS Lazio (1574); high confidence. Recent: Juventus FC 3W-2D-1L · SS Lazio 5W-1D-0L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Juventus FC +0.7, SS Lazio +1.2. Form depth Juventus FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). SS Lazio: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 3/3 on the road). SS Lazio on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Juventus FC 1.1, SS Lazio 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments SS Lazio has a stronger recent record (83% vs 50%) — model favours Juventus FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Juventus FC 0W, 2D, SS Lazio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-0, 1-1. Context Juventus FC has 1 more day of rest (Juventus FC 55d, SS Lazio 54d).